With Thanksgiving around the corner, shoppers are bracing themselves for the hefty price tag attached to a turkey dinner.

Labor and food production costs contribute to the increasing cost of produce this year, and food production costs are estimated to increase by 4.1%.

"While inflation is not as extreme as last year, it is still present and grocery store prices have still been somewhat variable," Bernt Nelson, an economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation, told USA TODAY in an email.

But how much should consumers expect to pay at the grocery store for this year’s Thanksgiving meal? Let's break that down.

Cost of turkey is down in 2023

The cost of turkey is expected to be lower this year, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. Economists at the bureau found that the average price for an 8 to16 pound turkey typically served at Thanksgiving was $1.27 per pound in August 2023, 22% lower than the same time last year.

The lower cost of turkeys this year can be attributed to a drop in avian influenza cases and a recovering turkey population in the U.S., and increased truck availability this year has helped ease supply constraints reducing costs for the food industry, according to personal finance site, MoneyGeek.

Analysts at MoneyGeek expect a fresh, whole 10-pound turkey to cost around $19 this November.

Average price of Thanksgiving meal expected to slightly increase

Last year, the average cost of a Thanksgiving feast for 10 was $64.05, according to the Farm Bureau. Although 2023 estimates are not yet available, the Consumer Price Index shows food-at-home prices up 2.4% this year.

Even as the pace of rising grocery prices has slowed in recent months, the Bureau of Labor Statistics found that grocery prices were up nearly 17% in the past two years.

How expensive are Thanksgiving side dishes this year?

Although turkey prices are decreasing, side dishes are not following similar trends. Thanksgiving side dishes are expected to be 4% more expensive in 2023 compared to last year.

This is particularly true in the Seattle, Washington metro area where, purchasing two store-bought pumpkin pies will cost around $21, according to MoneyGeek.

How much did Thanksgiving ingredients cost in 2022?

According to the most recent data available, here is how much individual Thanksgiving ingredients cost in 2022.

• 16-pound turkey: $28.96 or $1.81 per pound
• 14-ounce bag of cubed stuffing mix: $3.88
• 2 frozen pie crusts: $3.68
• Half pint of whipping cream: $2.24
• 1 pound of frozen peas: $1.90
• 1 dozen dinner rolls: $3.73
• Misc. ingredients to prepare the meal: $4.13
• 30-ounce can of pumpkin pie mix: $4.28
• 1 gallon of whole milk: $3.84
• 3 pounds of sweet potatoes: $3.96
• 1-pound veggie tray (carrots and celery): 88 cents
• 12-ounce bag of fresh cranberries: $2.57

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