Donald Trump holds a commanding lead over Nikki Haley in Republicans' preferences and in delegates going into the Super Tuesday contests. So what do we make of Nikki Haley winning a quarter and sometimes a third of the vote in these early primaries — and what should we make of it if she does so on Super Tuesday?
Most Republicans aren't ready to cross party lines come November: almost all self-identified Republicans nationwide — 96% — say they'd vote for Trump in a matchup with President Joe Biden. Instead, Haley's support in primary contests so far has often come from independents and some Democrats who've come into the GOP primaries, but she fares more poorly among self-identified Republicans.
However, it might mean there are some voters that the GOP could be leaving up for grabs if she's not the nominee. Nikki Haley continues to hold an advantage over Donald Trump in a potential general election match-up with Joe Biden largely because she does better nationally with independents, moderates and women.
While Trump leads Biden in a national match-up by four points among likely voters nationally, this lead grows to nine points in a potential Biden-Haley contest.
Unlike Trump, Haley leads Mr. Biden among women, runs evenly among moderates (Trump loses moderates to Biden), and she does even better than Trump among independents: Haley leads Mr. Biden among independents by two to one.
And right now, 13% of voters who would choose Haley in a Biden-Haley match-up say they will vote for Mr. Biden in the likely event that his challenger is Donald Trump.
Who are these defectors?
Meanwhile, Trump continues to have a commanding hold on the Republican Party. Seven in 10 Republican registered voters say it is very important for Republicans to be loyal to Donald Trump, and nine in 10 say that Donald Trump has a vision for where he wants to lead the country that they agree with.
This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted with a nationally representative sample of 2,159 U.S. adult residents interviewed between February 28-March 1, 2024. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, and education based on the U.S. Census American Community Survey and Current Population Survey, as well as past vote. The margin of error is ±2.8 points.
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